The Future of NATO After Ukraine ConflictStabilization
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AUTHOR: Diana Mohdhassain
Introduction
NATO, one of the most powerful political-standing treaties, was seen as a towering figure from the Cold War. It has been relevant in world politics currently, but will it still be applicable within the wake of the Russian-Ukraine conflict that has been occurring?
NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), founded in 1949 as a military treaty or Warsaw Treaty against the USSR (Soviet), has been seen as relevant in the modern world due to the rise of tension and conflict between Ukraine and Russia. While trying to attempt to have a conversation with Russia about their stance and military use over Ukraine, NATO has been seen as a mediator; but also providing military support and funding, humanitarian aid, and refugee settlements in various European countries to Ukraine ever since the invasion began by Russia.
The situation currently, in 2025, seems a little stabilising as fragile ceasefires and over-reliance on negotiations between the two countries continue. NATO is now facing crossroads of obstacles. The question arises: would NATO act as a strong military alliance as it used to, or change into a political partnership between Russia and Ukraine, ever since the world is changing?
The conflict and tension of military use over Ukraine, NATO, including its 32 member states within the Treaty, showed unparalleled unity. The invasion of Russian forces and military use over Ukraine has been seen as a threat against European security by NATO. The fact that Ukraine is not a member, yet still has received billions of financial aid, humanitarian aid, and citizens taken as refugees by multiple European countries, has been sent. This has improved NATO's reputation in the global political world especially after the internal conflicts and criticisms of USA's invasion of Afghanistan.
Currently, mid-way 2025, a lot of things can change for Ukraine. While currently the military activities have been paused, as well as Russia seems to seek negotiated settlements with NATO, a crucial question has arisen despite the peace agreement:
Whether NATO should now play a role in maintaining European security?
How much spending should go on defense, strategies, etc.?
An even larger question still remains unanswered: whether Ukraine would join NATO or not?
As Ukraine entertains the idea of NATO, it can lead to further Russian aggression.
However, one main concern is also regarding NATO's internal conflict and cohesion. Currently, till now, USA has been one of the biggest donors of it, as well as many European countries are depending upon USA, as well as its leadership, due to the fact the current President of United States is Mr. Donald Trump, who seeks to have a political relationship with Russia, as well as the USA's attention to China and Asia.
Additionally, populist and isolationist sentiments in some NATO countries may make support for cooperative military actions weaker. Burden-sharing is a sensitive subject because so few nations consistently meet the required 2% defence spending level.
Going forward, modernisation and agility are probably what NATO's future holds. Conventional ground invasions are losing ground to hybrid warfare, space defence, cybersecurity threats, and disinformation tactics. NATO may have to change its focus from being just a military alliance to a more comprehensive security alliance that encompasses counter-disinformation campaigns, digital infrastructure, and international strategic discussions. A potential move into Indo-Pacific collaborations might also be a reflection of China's expanding influence and the altering balance of power in the world.
However, NATO still has to cover up areas regarding growth through democratic resilience. Russia's expansion of advertisements covering propaganda against Ukraine, as well as Russia’s cyberwarfare, easily exposed the loopholes on how public opinion and national stability can be undermined. NATO has begun exploring efforts to support member states in resisting internal destabilization, which could become a key part of its future mandate.
Conclusion
NATO finds itself now in a difficult position. Whereas it has remained an image of the dominant-emerged treaty from the time of the Cold War, as one of the powerful military alliances in the world, it has the risk to run into threats such as the Russian invasion into Ukraine and other threats such as China’s electronic development, etc.
It needs to remain relevant by developing a complete security provider that fights against military threats such as Russia as well as disinformation, economic coercion (tariffs, exchange rates), and cyberattacks. In addition to having the flexibility to address regional problems like those in Ukraine, it must also have the strategic vision to handle new threats from growing superpowers like China.
NATO is at a turning point in the history of Ukraine as the dust starts to clear. Although the alliance has demonstrated its value throughout the crisis, its long-term viability hinges on how it develops in a multipolar world. Whether NATO continues to dominate the world military or changes to meet new challenges, its future will have a big impact on how international security is structured in the years to come.
References and Bibliography
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The Conversation – Koenig, Nicole. "Europeans Are Concerned That the US Will Withdraw Support from NATO – They Are Right to Worry, Americans Should Too." The Conversation, 9 July 2024, Accessed 15 July 2025https://theconversation.com/europeans-are-concerned-that-the-us-will-withdraw-support-from-nato-they-are-right-to-worry-americans-should-too-253907
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The Guardian, "Trump, Putin, Rutte, Zelenskyy: Ukraine and Russia–Europe News – Live Updates." The Guardian, Accessed 15 July 2025https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jul/15/trump-putin-rutte-zelenskyy-ukraine-russia-europe-news-live-updates
Goldgeier, James M., et al. The Future of NATO. Council on Foreign Relations, 24 June 2025, Accessed 15 July 2025https://www.cfr.org/report/future-nato
Spatafora, Giuseppe. "NATO’s 76th Anniversary: What’s the Future of the Alliance?" EU Institute for Security Studies, 7 Apr. 2025, Accessed 15 July 2025https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/commentary/natos-76th-anniversary-whats-future-alliance
